A Deep Learning Model for Forecasting Global Monthly Mean Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies

Abstract: Sea surface temperature (SST) variability plays a key role in the global weather and climate system, with phenomena such as El Ni~{n}o-Southern Oscillation regarded as a major source of interannual climate variability at the global scale. The ability to be able to make long-range forecasts of sea surface temperature anomalies, especially those associated with extreme marine heatwave events, has potentially significant economic and societal benefits. We have developed a deep learning time series prediction model (Unet-LSTM) based on more than 70 years (1950-2021) of ECMWF ERA5 monthly mean sea surface temperature and 2-metre air temperature data. The Unet-LSTM model is able to learn the underlying physics driving the temporal evolution of the 2-dimensional global sea surface temperatures. The model accurately predicts sea surface temperatures over a 24 month period with a root mean square error remaining below 0.75$^\circ$C for all predicted months. We have also investigated the ability of the model to predict sea surface temperature anomalies in the Ni~{n}o3.4 region, as well as a number of marine heatwave hot spots over the past decade. Model predictions of the Ni~{n}o3.4 index allow us to capture the strong 2010-11 La Ni~{n}a, 2009-10 El Nino and the 2015-16 extreme El Ni~{n}o up to 24 months in advance. It also shows long lead prediction skills for the northeast Pacific marine heatwave, the Blob. However, the prediction of the marine heatwaves in the southeast Indian Ocean, the Ningaloo Ni~{n}o, shows limited skill. These results indicate the significant potential of data driven methods to yield long-range predictions of sea surface temperature anomalies.