Bootstrap Based Inference for Sparse High-Dimensional Time Series Models

Abstract: Fitting sparse models to high-dimensional time series is an important area of statistical inference. In this paper we consider sparse vector autoregressive models and develop appropriate bootstrap methods to infer properties of such processes. Our bootstrap methodology generates pseudo time series using a model-based bootstrap procedure which involves an estimated, sparsified version of the underlying vector autoregressive model. Inference is performed using so-called de-sparsified or de-biased estimators of the autoregressive model parameters. We derive the asymptotic distribution of such estimators in the time series context and establish asymptotic validity of the bootstrap procedure proposed for estimation and, appropriately modified, for testing purposes. In particular we focus on testing that large groups of autoregressive coefficients equal zero. Our theoretical results are complemented by simulations which investigate the finite sample performance of the bootstrap methodology proposed. A real-life data application is also presented.