Generation and Interpretation of Temporal Decision Rules

Abstract: We present a solution to the problem of understanding a system that produces a sequence of temporally ordered observations. Our solution is based on generating and interpreting a set of temporal decision rules. A temporal decision rule is a decision rule that can be used to predict or retrodict the value of a decision attribute, using condition attributes that are observed at times other than the decision attribute's time of observation. A rule set, consisting of a set of temporal decision rules with the same decision attribute, can be interpreted by our Temporal Investigation Method for Enregistered Record Sequences (TIMERS) to signify an instantaneous, an acausal or a possibly causal relationship between the condition attributes and the decision attribute. We show the effectiveness of our method, by describing a number of experiments with both synthetic and real temporal data.