Reassessing Clean Power 2030 Pathway Using Real Time Records

Abstract: The National Energy System Operator (NESO) Clean Power 2030 advice to the government, accepted as United Kingdom (UK) government policy in December 2024, outlines a rapid increase in wind and solar generation capacities with the associated infrastructure by 2030, with the objective of reducing carbon dioxide emissions from the UK electricity system to 5.2 million tons per annum. Our previous paper used real-time records from 2017 to analyze Clean Power 2030 proposal. This paper extends the previous assessment, using real time records of 2017, 2018 and 2019 to test the resilience of the UK energy system under more diverse weather patterns. Two different modelling methods predict that the 2030 carbon dioxide emissions will be five times greater than Clean Power 2030 prediction. Furthermore, the projections show that, due to increased curtailment, only about half of NESO proposed increases in wind and solar capacities will be economically justified. NESO also advised the government that 35GW of unabated gas-fired generation would maintain security of supply, whereas our models suggest that at least 42 GW will be required during winter wind lulls. Recent events, such as grid stability problems in 2026, also discussed in the paper, validate our estimated and suggest the risk of blackouts in the UK is increasing.