Minimax-optimal Scaling Laws in Ridge Regression via Transfer Learning

Abstract: Pretrained models are often reused across downstream tasks, motivating the question of whether this transfer learning procedure can provide a substantial performance improvement, namely, in terms of the scaling law. We address this question in the prototypical setting of high-dimensional regression, where (i) a pretrained \emph{source} model is trained via ridge regression, and (ii) a fine-tuned \emph{target} model is regularized via the $L_2$ distance from the source estimator. First, we establish a deterministic equivalent for the risk of this two-step procedure under both model and covariance shift. Next, by specializing the deterministic equivalent to a shared regression function and commuting power-law covariance spectra, we identify a regime where the resulting scaling law achieves the minimax-optimal exponent. Notably, in this regime, the optimal source regularization depends on source data only, indicating its universality across all targets. Furthermore, we show that the same optimal rate is achieved by performing the fine-tuning step via one-pass stochastic gradient descent. We support our theoretical analysis via experiments on both synthetic settings and LLMs.