To Think or Not to Think: Pre-Decisional Reasoning Budgets for Referring Audio-Visual Segmentation

Abstract: Multimodal reasoning systems increasingly assume that longer chain-of-thought (CoT) uniformly improves downstream grounding. We show that this assumption fails in referring audio-visual segmentation (Ref-AVS): simple queries can be harmed by excessive reasoning, creating an "overthinking trap" associated with phrase and localization drift, while genuinely ambiguous queries still benefit from multi-step reasoning. To systematically study this, we construct counterfactual reasoning-budget labels under a five-fold out-of-fold evaluation protocol. Our results recast adaptive Ref-AVS reasoning as a pre-decisional representation problem: before the first generated token, the generation-onset state contains linearly decodable information predictive of whether additional reasoning will improve segmentation. A linear probe predicts binary reasoning need with 70.1% accuracy, substantially outperforming text-only features and uncertainty-based proxy signals. As a router, the onset-state controller improves over downstream confidence routing and closely matches Short-then-Decide while using far fewer tokens. Proxy comparisons show that the onset representation contains predictive information not fully recovered by the evaluated hand-crafted features. Reusing this onset state for lightweight, single forward-pass routing reduces autoregressive token consumption by 60% while retaining about 96% of always-long performance. It further provides a cost-quality trade-off on $R<sup>2$-AVSBench without target-label tuning, rather than an accuracy improvement over always-long. Error analysis links harmful long reasoning to phrase and localization drift, illustrating the benefit of bypassing unnecessary reasoning on simple queries. Ultimately, our results support efficient adaptive reasoning in Ref-AVS through pre-decisional internal representations.