TAP states at upper deviations of the free energy: existence, localization and marginal stability in Ising spin glasses

Abstract: We study upper large deviations of the free energy of mixed $p$-spin Ising spin glasses through the generalized TAP free energy $F_{\mathrm{TAP}}$ of Chen, Panchenko and Subag. For every mixture with radius of convergence greater than one, $\max F_{\mathrm{TAP}}$ and $\log Z_N$ have the same large deviations at speed $N$; the proof combines their band theorem with Ramsey's theorem. For convex mixtures with $\sum_p 2<sup>pβ_p<sup>2&lt;\infty$, upper deviations at level $f$ are carried by generalized TAP critical points, which exist at the free-energy rate without Boursier's strict Plefka condition. Outside an event of smaller exponential order, near-maximizers at level $f$ lie near the contact set of a constrained Parisi obstacle, follow the Auffinger-Chen field law, and have Hessian bulk near a reflected Pastur law whose edge is nonpositive and vanishes exactly at contacts where the obstacle is flat to second order. Where every contact is of this kind, a fixed stability margin costs rate.