The first descent in a standard Young tableau of shape $(n,n,n)$

Abstract: Let $a(n)$ be the number of standard Young tableaux of shape $(n,n,n)$ whose entry in row $2$, column $1$ is odd; equivalently, the number of those whose first descent is even. This is entry A011553 of the On-Line Encyclopedia of Integer Sequences, contributed in 1996, and after thirty years of curation it carries no formula. We supply one, $$a(n) = 8\,\bigl(n!\,(n+2)!\bigr)^{{-1}\sum_{m=1}^{\lfloor} n/2\rfloor} m(m+1)(3n-2m-1)!/(n-2m)!$$, and use it to settle both of the conjectures the entry records. A creative telescoping certificate shows that $a$ satisfies a linear recurrence of order two with polynomial coefficients; the order-three recurrence conjectured by R. J. Mathar in 2023 is a left multiple of it, with explicit cofactor $(4S<sup>{-1}-3)/(7n-9)$. We also prove $a(n)\sim 3<sup>{3n+7/2}/(64πn<sup>{4})$, the asymptotic conjectured by V. Kotesovec in 2014. The second proof gives slightly more than the conjecture asks: the position of the first descent has a limiting distribution, the probability that the $(2,1)$ entry equals $r+1$ tending to $r(r+2)/3<sup>{\,r+1}$. Summing the even terms, a uniformly random tableau of shape $(n,n,n)$ has an odd $(2,1)$ entry with probability tending to $27/64$, whereas for a uniformly random tableau of $n$ cells of unrestricted shape the corresponding limit is $1/e$.