Local random quantum circuits converge to the Porter-Thomas distribution in polynomial depth

Abstract: Porter-Thomas statistics are a characteristic feature of the output distribution of random quantum states and, more broadly, chaotic quantum many-body systems. Convergence to Porter-Thomas plays a central role in random circuit sampling and experimental demonstrations of quantum advantage, where the output statistics of low-depth random quantum circuits are expected to be approximately Porter-Thomas, despite the absence of a rigorous proof of convergence. We show that the output distribution of polynomial-depth brickwork random circuits converges inverse-polynomially in total variation distance to the Porter-Thomas distribution. Specifically, consider the output probability distribution over a fixed bitstring of a local random quantum circuit, constructed from nearest-neighbor Haar random gates. Then, for any $m \geq 0$, the distribution corresponding to circuits of depth $O(n<sup>{2m+1}\log(n))$ is at most $O(1/n<sup>m)$ far in total variation distance from the Porter-Thomas distribution. Our proof uses moment bounds from approximate designs, analytic estimates for characteristic functions, and a local anticoncentration property for inverse moments.