Igniting Galaxy Formation in the Postreionization Universe, II: Nature versus Nurture

Abstract: Although the ultraviolet background from reionization is thought to conspire against the smallest halos, some gas-rich halos in the post-reionization Universe still form stars. We ask which properties, environmental or intrinsic, determine ignition. Using the FIREbox cosmological volume, we compare recently-ignited halos to a mass- and gas-matched sample of gas-resolved starless halos at $z=2$--6. We test three families of "third axis" properties beyond $M_{\rm vir}$, $M_{\rm gas}$, and $z$: geometric environment (the Perturbation Index and local galaxy density $ρ<em>5$), hydrodynamic environment (the $1$--$2,R</em>{\rm vir}$ gas-supply shell), and intrinsic halo properties (concentration and the neutral-gas reservoir). A nested random-forest classification finds that geometric environment adds little, while the hydrodynamic shell is modestly informative. Three complementary properties each discriminate ignited from starless halos beyond the mass--gas--redshift baseline (AUC $=0.635$, where $0.5$ is chance): total HI mass ($M_{\rm HI}$, AUC $=0.739$), the extent of the neutral gas ($r_{\rm HI,50}/R_{\rm vir}$, AUC $=0.738$), and the central HI density ($ρ_{\rm HI,0}$, AUC $=0.700$); jointly they reach AUC $=0.823$, the highest of any combination we test. At fixed halo mass, gas mass and redshift, recently-ignited halos harbor more HI over a larger radius than their matched controls, and these two enhancements are uncorrelated. The same reservoir sets when ignition can happen: from $z=6$ to $z=0$ the median starless halo keeps its gas ($+0.05$ dex) while its neutral fraction falls by $3.9$ dex, so the reservoir is ionized rather than exhausted and the ignition window closes below $z\simeq2$. In sum, a halo's own neutral-gas reservoir discriminates ignited from starless halos more sharply than its location in the cosmic web -- nature over nurture.