Emulation strategies for Bayesian inference of regional left ventricle material parameters

Abstract: Patient-specific biomechanical models of the left ventricle can relate cardiac magnetic resonance imaging to regional myocardial material properties, but existing emulator-based studies typically treat the myocardium as mechanically homogeneous, limiting representation of localised dysfunction. We propose a Bayesian surrogate-modelling framework for inferring regional Holzapfel-Ogden material parameters in a left ventricle partitioned into five physiological zones derived from the American Heart Association 17-segment model. Eight emulator strategies spanning single- versus multi-output, local versus global, and Gaussian-process- versus neural-network-based architectures were screened using parameter point-estimation accuracy; the three retained models were evaluated using empirical marginal credible-interval coverage and posterior contraction. We found that models with comparable point accuracy nevertheless differed markedly in uncertainty. A multi-output variational Gaussian process provided the most favourable balance across these criteria and was retained for the subsequent analyses. In synthetic local and global stiffening scenarios, maximum a posteriori estimates generally distinguished stiffened from baseline zones, but the nonlinear-stiffening parameters were more difficult to identify from end-diastolic observations than the stiffness-magnitude parameters. A healthy-volunteer analysis demonstrates feasibility with an incomplete observation vector and jointly inferred strain-noise scales. These results suggest that the proposed framework provides a computationally feasible, uncertainty-aware approach to regional left ventricle parameter inference.