Boundary parity in the mirror model on the Manhattan lattice

Abstract: We study a finite-domain event for the mirror model on the Manhattan lattice: every boundary-to-boundary trajectory crosses a marked connector an even number of times, while internal cycles are unrestricted. Our main theorem gives a finite-scale confinement criterion: if this event's probability reaches a universal threshold in one even two-square rectangle, then almost surely every trajectory in the plane is periodic. We construct an exactly normalized three-color tensor representation and prove deterministic bounds for approximate contractions using the signed partial-permutation structure of directed continuations. These tools turn numerical evaluations into rigorous finite-volume statements. At mirror density (p=2/5), we prove that the boundary-parity probability is nonmonotone in the rectangle width, with a decrease followed by a certified increase. These values remain below the sufficient confinement threshold and do not resolve planar localization at this density. Further experiments track how the measured finite-size minimum varies with density, compare matching-based and entrywise error bounds, and exhibit endpoint-sensitive and cooperative responses to local mirror changes.