Sparse data limit what a mechanistic corrosion model can predict

Abstract: Mechanistic corrosion models are routinely fitted with four to six parameters to a few measurements and extrapolated across service lifetimes, yet whether the data determine them is rarely tested. We identify a reduced point defect model for the duplex oxide on Nb-stabilized AISI 347 in simulated boiling-water-reactor water from published depth profiles at three exposure times, by differentiable inversion graded against a closed-form reference. Profile likelihood, a 1000-member bootstrap and a prior-relaxation test agree that one of the five parameters is undetermined and a second only weakly so, and that 95% of the fit statistic rests on three chromium points. The kinetics track an empirical power law over the calibration window but diverge from it by a factor of 3.5 to 6.3 at ten years, outside the propagated uncertainty band. That separation, not the thickness it brackets, is what these data determine; an exposure near 3000 hours would resolve it.