Predictions for astrometric microlensing in Gaia

Abstract: ESA's astrometric space mission Gaia is uniquely positioned for microlensing studies thanks to its all-sky coverage and simultaneous astrometric and photometric observations. In Gaia Data Release 4 (DR4), astrometric time series will be published for the first time, providing a rich dataset for isolated stellar remnant searches. In anticipation of DR4, we prepared tools for fitting photometric and 1D astrometric measurements. We tested the recovery of true event parameters and population distributions with Gaia-like observations. We created a mock survey of microlensing events mirroring Gaia DR4's design. The events were generated using dedicated Galactic simulations to provide realistic expectations on stellar and dark lens yields. For selected events, we simulated observations following Gaia's scanning law and precision, using the astromet package. Such simulations are needed to interpret forthcoming data; they also enable testing inference tools with known ground truth. We used nested sampling to infer full posterior distributions and compare them with the true lens parameters. Our simulation predicts $322 \pm 70$ microlensing events with astrometric signals above Gaia precision thresholds; $209 \pm 57$ of them have detectable photometric signals. Among those, $82 \pm 9$ and $49 \pm 7$, respectively, have remnant lenses. To assess Gaia's capabilities in constraining remnant mass distributions, we modelled $49$ events from this sample. We recovered the true Einstein times and radii for most events. Microlensing parallax measurements are consistent with true values but uncertain, limiting mass determination. We recommend focusing on events with bright sources or anomalous fits to optimize dark lens searches. We make available the mock Gaia time-series dataset, as well as a toolkit repository for working with the data format, fitting models, and visualizing results.