Quantifying the Memorization-to-Generalization Transition: Scaling Laws and Phase Structure in Grokking

Abstract: Neural networks trained past memorization frequently undergo a delayed transition to generalization, a phenomenon known as grokking. Despite theoretical progress on \emph{why} this transition occurs, the quantitative structure of \emph{when} it occurs in hyperparameter space remains uncharacterized. We map the memorization-to-generalization boundary across 384 configurations of two-hidden-layer MLPs on modular arithmetic, fitting a power-law scaling relation for generalization onset time: $$T_{\mathrm{grok}} \propto H^{-0.27}\, D^{-2.04}\, η^{-0.50}\, λ<sup>{-0.64}$$ ($R² = 0.732$; $0.821$ with interactions). The exponent hierarchy reveals that data complexity ($D<sup>{-2.04}$) is the dominant driver of regime transition, not model capacity ($H<sup>{-0.27}$): doubling data accelerates generalization by ${\sim}4\times$, while doubling width yields only ${\sim}1.2\times$. A sharp phase boundary at weight decay $λ\gtrsim 1.0$ separates grokking from non-grokking configurations, and weight norm trajectories show monotonic compression during the transition, consistent with implicit regularization selecting low-complexity solutions. These results provide a quantitative foundation for predicting and controlling regime transitions in overparameterized networks.