A Sharp Barrier for Consistent Submodular Maximization: Any Improvement over $2-\sqrt{2}$ Entails Exponential Queries or Linear Recourse

Abstract: Consistent submodular maximization studies the tradeoff between solution quality and stability when elements arrive over time. For a monotone submodular objective, which models diminishing returns, an algorithm maintains a set of at most $k$ available elements and changes only $O(1)$ elements after each insertion. Dütting et al. [2025] established a tight $2/3$ approximation with unrestricted computation and a polynomial-time $0.51$ approximation. They left open at STOC 2025 whether efficient algorithms can match the offline $1-1/e$ guarantee. We resolve this problem by proving that the supremum approximation achievable with polynomially many value queries and worst-case constant recourse is [ β=2-\sqrt2\approx0.5858<1-1/e. ] For every $\varepsilon&gt;0$, our randomized algorithm attains $β-\varepsilon$ with $O(\varepsilon<sup>{-2})$ changes per insertion. Any fixed improvement requires exponentially many queries before one critical insertion or linear recourse of $Ω(k)$ changes at that insertion, even with unlimited queries afterwards. This gap quantifies the cost of consistency: the current oracle hides which elements will be needed after an arrival. We also determine the exact curvature-dependent threshold $1-(\sqrt2-1)\vartheta$, attain $1-1/e-\varepsilon$ for weighted coverage with $O(\varepsilon<sup>{-1})$ recourse, and separate the existence of universal future-price certificates from their efficient computation. Our algorithm has a bounded-bit polynomial-time implementation for polynomial-bit rational oracle answers; the lower bound uses only logarithmic-bit rational answers.