Contrasting C/O ratios in Uranus and Neptune from disequilibrium chemistry: A clue to distinct evolutionary pathways?

Abstract: The formation of Uranus and Neptune remains poorly constrained largely due to uncertain deep elemental abundances. Carbon monoxide (CO), a disequilibrium species in the upper troposphere, provides an indirect constraint on the deep oxygen abundance. We investigate the deep O/H and C/O ratios of the ice giants and their formation history by accounting for meridional variations in atmospheric structure and uncertainties in chemical kinetics. We extended a 1D thermochemical and diffusion model into a pseudo-2D model by including latitudinal variations in key model parameters. The O/H ratio was inferred by matching the modeled upper-tropospheric CO mole fractions to observations, and combined with the deep carbon abundance to derive the C/O ratio. For Uranus, varying tropospheric methane alone yielded O/H $\sim [47-57] \times$ protosolar, whereas allowing $K_{zz}$ to vary expanded the range to O/H $\sim [62-177] \times$ protosolar. For Neptune, the corresponding ranges are O/H $\sim [182-215] \times$ protosolar and O/H $\sim [222-342] \times$ protosolar, respectively, supporting lower oxygen enrichment in Uranus than Neptune. Chemical-network uncertainties have a more modest effect, amounting to at most $\sim 10\%$ of the retrieved oxygen ranges, comparable to the uncertainty associated with the measured CO abundance on Neptune, but larger on Uranus. We computed C/O latitudinal ranges and found C/O $\sim [0.06-0.52]$ on Uranus and $\sim [0.02-0.12]$ on Neptune. Comparison with a protoplanetary disk model suggests different formation or evolutionary pathways for the two planets. Our results highlight the dominant role of vertical mixing in constraining deep oxygen abundance and the importance of accounting for meridional variability and chemical uncertainties. This work also provides a framework for selecting the entry latitude of a future Uranus Orbiter and Probe mission.