Confidence-Gated Admission for Hardware Prefetching: When the Gate Matters More Than the Predictor

Abstract: Learned cache prefetchers are typically evaluated against classical predictors that always issue requests, confounding the prediction model with the admission policy. We disentangle these variables with matched controls: the same admission gate is applied to both a 257-parameter online MLP and a classical stride predictor. The neural advantage vanishes; the MLP is indistinguishable from gated stride on random traffic and slower on most regular streams. The gate itself is architecturally useful independent of the predictor: on twenty SPEC CPU2017 programs in native ChampSim, it removes 35% of prefetches and improves accuracy from 11% to 15%, but DRAM reads change by only 0.07% demonstrating that proxy metrics do not predict endpoint behavior. We prove gate-closed execution reproduces the no-prefetch baseline exactly. The gate matters more than the predictor, and better proxies do not imply better endpoints.