An Approximately 70-Year Core-Related Modulation of Earth Rotation and Its Implications for the Leap Second

Abstract: Recent observations of Universal Time (UT1) indicate an acceleration in Earth's rotation. If sustained under the current leap-second framework, this behavior could eventually prompt consideration of a negative leap second. We examine whether the recent acceleration is consistent with an approximately 70-year, core-related modulation of length of day (LOD). After removal of modeled tidal, surface-fluid, and secular contributions, residual LOD contains a near-70-year component, and a similar component is present in core angular momentum (CAM)-derived equivalent LOD inferred from geomagnetic observations. All harmonic, spectral, and LOD-CAM analyses reported here use the common 1883--2022 interval. Harmonic regression over trial periods of 50--100 yr gives periods of 69.7 yr for residual LOD and 71.8 yr for CAM-derived equivalent LOD, with amplitudes of 2.87 and 1.94 ms, respectively. Lomb--Scargle spectra show peaks near 67.8 and 70.5 yr. The annual series have a zero-lag correlation of 0.918. Their lagged correlation has a broad maximum for a CAM lead of approximately 1-3 yr, with a numerical maximum of 0.932 at 2 yr. Because both records are strongly autocorrelated, these coefficients are used to characterize their correspondence rather than to assess predictive significance. The results are consistent with a core-related contribution to low-frequency rotational variability, but they do not uniquely separate the contributions of electromagnetic, topographic, gravitational, and viscous core--mantle coupling mechanisms. Within the fitted model, the multidecadal component alone does not indicate sustained near-term shortening of the day that would, by itself, require a negative leap second. This is a model-dependent geophysical assessment, not an operational prediction of future UTC adjustments.