Tautological Pushforwards of Hilbert Schemes of Points on Curves and Surfaces

Abstract: Ellingsrud, Göttsche, and Lehn proved a remarkable universality result for tautological integrals on Hilbert schemes of points on surfaces. We prove a relative form: over a base $B$, the tautological pushforwards are governed by universal power series paired with relative $κ$-classes. As applications, we focus on Segre classes on families of curves and surfaces. For curve families, we determine all universal coefficients for total Segre pushforwards. These formulas answer a question of Oprea--Pandharipande, and the resulting recursions are surprisingly related to monotone Hurwitz numbers. For surface families, motivated by Marian--Oprea--Pandharipande's work on Lehn's conjecture, we obtain a codimension-one relative form of the conjecture, with explicit formulas for every universal series.