Bayesian P-spline recovery of stochastic gravitational-wave backgrounds in LISA

Abstract: The detection of a stochastic gravitational-wave background (SGWB) is a primary science objective for the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA). However, extracting these signals is difficult because both the signal and the instrumental noise are stochastic and overlapping in the millihertz band. In this work, we present a Bayesian framework for the joint estimation of LISA noise and SGWB signals. Our approach models the LISA instrumental noise using flexible log-penalized splines, employing a roughness penalty to prevent overfitting while maintaining computational efficiency. For the SGWB, we compare a power-law model with a spline-based model and study how the choice of signal model and noise prior affects signal recovery and detection. Using simulated LISA data, we find that the power-law model gives tighter estimates when the signal follows the assumed shape. However, it fails to recover a localized spectral feature that is not described by a power law, causing the signal to be absorbed by the instrumental-noise spline. The fully spline-based model is less restrictive and successfully recovers such features. We also find that stronger prior information about the test-mass noise helps reduce the degeneracy between the noise and SGWB models at low frequencies, improving signal detection. These results reflect a single trade-off: added model flexibility reduces sensitivity when the assumed signal shape is correct, and prevents bias when it is not.