Does online sustainability communication shape public discourse? Insights from six years of tenant-housing provider interactions

Abstract: Authorities increasingly rely on social media to advance sustainability transitions, infrastructure investment, and service reform. Yet how citizens respond to these digital communications remains poorly understood. Existing approaches rely on aggregate engagement metrics (e.g., likes), providing limited insight into discourse structure and quality. We developed a data-driven, multidimensional framework to analyse how social media communication shapes the content of discourse, focusing on sustainability-related engagement in Dutch public housing. We analysed 792 posts and 3,197 tenant comments from the Facebook pages of 92 housing providers (2018-2023). A machine-learning pipeline classified comments into recurring discourse configurations across three dimensions - communicative intent, sentiment, and semantic relatedness. Multinomial logistic regression estimated the effects of post-design and organisational characteristics on discourse. Tenant comments were significantly more semantically aligned with their corresponding posts than with randomly paired content, indicating that organisational communication structures responses to topics. Six discourse types emerged, with critical and inquiry-driven engagement increasing over time. Post-level features did not significantly explain variation; organisational characteristics dominated. Larger housing associations attracted more substantive responses, while lower-rent organisations received fewer evaluative comments. While applied to housing associations, our methodology provides a scalable approach to analyse online discourse dynamics, quality, and content across organisations and contexts.