Black Boxes in Black Hole Imaging

Abstract: We investigate the epistemic opacity of computer simulations and machine learning methods in the context of black hole imaging. We argue that there are forms of opacity-including opacity resulting from the use of machine learning-which do not need to affect the reliability of an inference when it is seen as a part of a broader inferential framework. We propose conditions under which that can plausibly be the case, and discuss how opaque methods can be useful in the context of the (next generation) Event Horizon Telescope. However, we also argue that at least one problematic form of opacity is currently present in black hole imaging: GRMHD models of Sagittarius A* are opaque. This form of opacity signals the limitations of current understanding of the models of this source, and constrains the potential uses of ML models in future observations.