Nautilus Space Observatory: Unveiling the Diversity and Origin of Sub-Neptunes with the Nautilus Space Observatory

Abstract: Sub-Neptunes are the most common class of planets in the Galaxy, yet they have no Solar System analog and remain poorly understood as a population. JWST observations have revealed atmospheres spanning a wide range of metallicities, compositions, and cloud properties, driving active debates over whether warm sub-Neptunes harbor liquid water oceans beneath H2-rich envelopes, maintain stratified H2/H2O interiors, or have well-mixed, metal-rich envelopes. Open questions also remain over what physical processes drive transitions between hazy and clear atmospheres. These are intrinsically population-level questions that single-target observations, however deep, cannot resolve. Here we argue that a sub-Neptune population survey with the Nautilus Space Observatory, a proposed constellation of large-diameter space telescopes, would deliver the first statistical map of sub-Neptune atmospheric diversity, test competing classification schemes, identify habitable candidates, and serve as a pathfinder population for the eventual habitable-worlds search. These goals are achievable across the proposed mission classes for the constellation, and this architecture is uniquely well-matched to this science case since population-level questions demand sample size and a uniform observing strategy.