Competitive satellite placement and the geography of orbital risk: evidence from the geostationary arc

Abstract: Some orbital locations are crowded while others remain unoccupied. We explain why using the geostationary orbit as a near-ideal laboratory: a mature, one-dimensional orbit in which satellite operators compete for position under first-come first-served allocation rules. Using the complete ITU registry and a simple competitive entry model, we predict the observed distribution of active GEO satellites with $R^2 = 0.64$. In walk-forward tests, the structural model also predicts individual slot choices out of sample better than a fitted conditional-logit discrete-choice model. Our model also predicts the distribution of inactive payloads in GEO with $R^2 = 0.44$, showing that the geography of debris risk can be predicted when it is a function of satellite launches. Surprisingly, we find that the current satellite distribution in GEO is relatively fair: driven by population rather than income and placing satellites in economically efficient locations. However, our model shows that this is only the case for mature slots.