A Law of Iterated Expectation Primer for Causal Inference

Abstract: The g-formula is a foundational tool for identifying causal effects in observational data. This tool is based on the law of iterated expectation, a key mathematical identity in statistics. However, the notation with which the law of iterated expectation and the g-formula is expressed can be opaque to those with little background in statistics. We provide a primer introducing the law of iterated expectation, the integration notation used to express it, and its role for causal effect identification via the g-formula. Under the assumptions of causal consistency, positivity, and conditional exchangeability, the law of iterated expectation can be rewritten as a causal standardization formula (the g-formula) in two nonparametrically equivalent forms: a non-iterative conditional expectation (NICE) form involving a single weighted average of conditional outcome means, and an iterative conditional expectation (ICE) form involving nested expectations. We illustrate both forms using three progressively complex numerical examples: a time-fixed example with a single binary confounder, a time-fixed example with discrete and continuous confounders, and a time-varying example with two timepoints. We provide clarity on what the law of iterated expectation is, how it is related to the g-formula, and how to gain intuition of its mathematical formulations in actual data examples that can be generalized to a range of settings.