A Bayesian Functional Accelerated Failure-Time Model with Varying Effects Correcting for Measurement Error

Abstract: Functional data collected as continuously observed trajectories arise naturally in many biomedical settings, and a key inferential goal is understanding how such functional covariates relate to time-to-event outcomes while allowing that relationship to vary across subgroups defined by scalar characteristics. Existing frequentist approaches to functional accelerated failure-time (AFT) models struggle to flexibly capture the joint, nonlinear influence of scalar covariates and time on the functional effect, and none adequately address the measurement error that frequently contaminates functionally observed exposures. We propose a Bayesian functional AFT model in which the functional coefficient is a varying effect function of both time and a set of scalar covariates, modeled through a Gaussian process single-index structure that provides a flexible, nonlinear framework for subgroup modification. Measurement error in the functional covariate is handled by pairing a proxy observation with an instrumental variable that accommodates non-linear associations with the latent functional exposure. A prominent source of such functional data is wearable devices, which can continuously monitor physical activity (PA) behavioral patterns over time, yet whose outputs are well known to be prone to measurement error and to exhibit heterogeneous associations with health outcomes across demographic subgroups. Through simulations, we show that our approach recovers the true varying functional effects and reduces bias relative tonaïve models that ignore measurement error. We apply our methods to the Reasons for Geographical and Racial Differences in Stroke (REGARDS) study to investigate how step-count physical activity relates to time-to-death from ischemic stroke across racial and regional groups.