A universal framework to identify eccentric binary mergers: GW200105 case study

Abstract: Orbital eccentricity in gravitational-wave signals from merging compact object binaries is a powerful indicator of their formation channel. Several binary black hole mergers and a neutron star--black hole merger have been reported to exhibit signs of eccentricity, but which events are identified and the significance of the eccentricity differs between studies. Measurements of eccentricity can change depending on the choice of prior. The choice of prior is subtle: eccentricity is commonly measured at an arbitrary reference frequency, which varies from study to study. We use the candidate eccentric neutron star--black hole merger GW200105_162426 as a case study, employing a range of priors and reference frequencies, and find the results to be strongly prior-driven. We show that the varied results reported across different studies can be partially reconciled by accounting for the evolution of eccentricity with reference frequency. In order to make conclusive statements about eccentricity, we propose a detection statistic that does not depend on reference frequency, and which marginalises over astrophysically-motivated distributions in eccentricity. Using this detection statistic, we find reduced support for the eccentric hypothesis for GW200105_162426: we obtain a natural log Bayes factor ln B $\leq$ 0.9 comparing the eccentric, aligned-spin hypothesis to the quasi-circular, precessing hypothesis. Our results cast doubt on the eccentric interpretation of GW200105_162426 and underscore the importance of modelling the astrophysical distributions of eccentricity in nature.