Predicting food taste with bound-driven optimization

Abstract: The prediction of sensory attributes from ingredient-level formulations is an emerging challenge at the intersection of food science and artificial intelligence. We address the fundamental question of whether the taste of a food can be predicted from its ingredients by treating recipes as composite materials. We apply Hashin--Shtrikman (HS) and Reuss--Voigt (RV) bounds, techniques originally developed for elastic moduli, to predict five taste dimensions (sweetness, sourness, bitterness, umami, saltiness) on a curated dataset of 70 recipes decomposed into 209 ingredient-level taste references with trained-panel ground truth. The bounds provided an additive baseline but systematically under-predict perceived taste: 77\% of actual taste values exceeded the HS upper bound, with the exceedance rate ranging from 26\% (bitterness) to 97\% (saltiness). We traced this gap to specific processing chemistry (Maillard reactions, caramelization, evaporative concentration, protein hydrolysis, and nucleotide synergy) and introduced a hybrid model that augments the HS baseline with eight chemistry-proxy features encoding these mechanisms. Our results show that our interpretable hybrid model eliminates the systematic bias and reduces mean absolute error by 27--62\% for sweetness, sourness, umami, and saltiness while using only 10 interpretable features, achieving performance comparable to a black-box Lasso regression on 115 per-ingredient features. We further demonstrate constrained inverse design via Differential Evolution, recovering ingredient formulations that match target taste profiles subject to compositional bounds.