Capacity Expansion Planning for Puerto Rico's Electric Power System

Abstract: This study presents a mathematical optimization framework and preliminary analysis for long-term investment planning in Puerto Rico's electric power system. We develop a high-resolution capacity expansion model to identify least-cost generation and storage investments that improve system reliability. The model co-optimizes new investments and thermal generator retirements while representing generator dispatch, unit commitment, fuel selection, and storage operations under constraints of equipment engineering limits, fuel supply limitations, and load satisfaction. Key methodological advances relative to prior long-term planning studies for Puerto Rico include: (i) nodal transmission modeling at 38 kV and above, (ii) hourly chronological operations for representative days, (iii) explicit unit commitment for existing and new thermal units with realistic ramping, minimum up and down times, and startup costs, (iv) system-wide fuel supply constraints, and (v) stochastic operating scenarios reflecting load variation, renewable availability, and the high forced outage rates of legacy units. Using data from LUMA, PREPA, DOE, and public sources, we build present-day (2024) and future (2030) test systems, with the latter including planned generation and storage projects. We evaluate planning scenarios that vary future load, fuel supply assumptions, realization of planned expansion, and allowable new technologies. Results show that, given the recent relaxation of interim renewable goals for the near future in Puerto Rico, an optimal portfolio includes at least 1.5 GW of new H-class combined cycle capacity beyond planned projects. These additions are needed mainly to replace unreliable legacy thermal units rather than to serve new load. The new combined cycle units eliminate modeled bulk-system load shedding and restore a strong reserve margin, even under stressed load and outage conditions.