Semantic Step Prediction: Multi-Step Latent Forecasting in LLM Reasoning Trajectories via Step Sampling

Abstract: Semantic Tube Prediction (STP) leverages representation geometric to regularize LLM hidden-state trajectories toward locally linear geodesics during fine-tuning, thereby greatly improving data efficiency. The original STP recipe samples random token sub-spans, which is compatible with the base LLM training architecture. Inspired by STP, we are interested to investigate whether the sampling position can further enhance the semantic structure of multi-step reasoning, and hence affect its geometric impact. We applied STP at consecutive semantic reasoning step boundaries and achieved 168x more accurate multi-step latent prediction than frozen baselines on ProcessBench (3,400 samples), compared to only 4x for the random-token STP. Probing the latent manifold with a learned non-linear predictor reveals that STP-shaped trajectories are smooth curves, not straight lines: a 3-layer MLP reduces prediction error by a further 3-12x over linear extrapolation on step-boundary models. Removing the language modeling loss yields trajectories that are 2x more MLP-predictable than the combined loss, revealing a tradeoff between generation quality and geometric purity. Our results identify sampling position as the critical variable in geometric regularization and establish multi-step latent prediction MSE as a new evaluation metric for this class of methods.