Modeling Utah FORGE 2022 EGS Hydraulic Stimulations: Tensile Hydraulic Fractures versus Fluid-Induced Dilatant Shear Ruptures

Abstract: We investigate two hydraulic stimulation stages performed in April 2022 at the Utah FORGE enhanced geothermal system test site using analytical and numerical models for tensile hydraulic fractures and fluid-induced dilatant shear fractures. The two injection stages differ primarily by the viscosity of the fracturing fluid. Despite similar injection rate schedules and well-head pressure responses, the two stages exhibit markedly different post-shut-in microseismic behavior. The cross-linked gel stage shows sustained microseismic activity for several hours after shut-in, whereas the slickwater stage exhibits an immediate decrease. For the cross-linked gel stage, the located microseismic events reveal the development of a planar radial fracture and allow confident retrieval of the fracture extent evolution with time. We demonstrate that this evolution follows the scalings predicted for viscosity-storage-dominated radial hydraulic fracture by analytical models, providing strong evidence for the development of a planar tensile hydraulic fracture. We further show that leak-off is required to reproduce the fracture extent. In contrast, the immediate arrest observed during the slick-water stage suggests either a transition to a toughness- or leak-off-dominated hydraulic fracture regime, or the development of a fluid-induced shear fracture. We show that the slickwater stage could plausibly correspond to a dilatant shear fracture, provided sufficient dilatancy, whereas this hypothesis is invalidated for the cross-linked gel stage. We confirm these insights using a 3D axisymmetric fully-coupled hydro-mechanical numerical model capable of resolving both tensile and shear failure modes, and including leak-off. Finally, we propagate uncertainties in the in-situ stress state and natural fracture orientations through this numerical model to assess their impact on injection pressures.