Racing to Release: Priority, Congestion, and Community Recognition in Open-Source LLM Ecosystems

Abstract: Open-source LLMs have made platforms such as Hugging Face central hubs for decentralized AI innovation. Yet these ecosystems are shaped not only by collaboration, but also by competition for priority and community attention. Drawing on Hill and Stein's Race-to-the-Bottom framework, this study extends the logic of project potential, maturation, competition, and quality from scientific production to open-source LLM ecosystems, where prominent base models attract concentrated derivative entry under rapid and highly visible platform feedback. Using a large-scale sample of derivative models on Hugging Face, we find that later releases and more crowded competitive environments are both associated with weaker community recognition, even after accounting for differences in model and ecosystem prominence. These findings suggest that competition for priority remains an important organizing force in open-source LLM ecosystems, shaping which derivative innovations receive community recognition.