When Valid Signals Fail: Regime Boundaries Between LLM Features and RL Trading Policies

Abstract: Can LLMs generate continuous numerical features that improve reinforcement learning (RL) trading agents? We build a modular pipeline where a frozen LLM serves as a stateless feature extractor, transforming unstructured daily news and filings into a fixed-dimensional vector consumed by a downstream PPO agent. We introduce an automated prompt-optimization loop that treats the extraction prompt as a discrete hyperparameter and tunes it directly against the Information Coefficient - the Spearman rank correlation between predicted and realized returns - rather than NLP losses. The optimized prompt discovers genuinely predictive features (IC above 0.15 on held-out data). However, these valid intermediate representations do not automatically translate into downstream task performance: during a distribution shift caused by a macroeconomic shock, LLM-derived features add noise, and the augmented agent under-performs a price-only baseline. In a calmer test regime the agent recovers, yet macroeconomic state variables remain the most robust driver of policy improvement. Our findings highlight a gap between feature-level validity and policy-level robustness that parallels known challenges in transfer learning under distribution shift.