To Defer or To Shift? The Role of AI Data Center Flexibility on Grid Interconnection

Abstract: The integration of AI data centers into power grid represents one of the most emerging and complex challenges for the energy systems. As computational demand scales at an unprecedented rate, the traditional grid planning study's paradigm of treating data centers as rigid, inflexible loads is becoming economically, mathematically and operationally untenable. This work tries to understand and address the large load interconnection bottleneck by modeling and evaluating AI load flexibility. By examining data center's temporal and spatial shifting capabilities within a grid capacity expansion framework, we build a quantitative grid planning model, and evaluate their impacts on additional generation, operational costs, and network congestion. Numerical study reveals interesting observations, as AI data center flexibility are not felt consistently, and increasing flexibility does not necessarily translate to less generation capacity required. Depending on data center's locations, flexibility range, and grid load conditions, flexible AI load can help reduce grid investment and operational costs by 3-21%. Our work also indicate that longer deferral time of AI compute has diminishing returns for offloading grid electricity dispatch pressure.