Geometry of the Ising persistence problem and the universal Bonnet-Manin Painlevé VI distribution

Abstract: We determine the full persistence probability distribution for a non-Markovian stochastic process, motivated by first-passage questions arising in interacting spin systems and allied systems. We show that this distribution is governed by a distinguished Painlevé VI system arising from an exact Fredholm Pfaffian structure associated with the integrable sech kernel, $K_{\mathrm{sech}}=1/(2 π\cosh[(x-y)/2])$. The universal persistence exponent originally obtained by Derrida, Hakim and Pasquier is recovered as an asymptotic observable and acquires a natural geometric interpretation. In the stationary scaling regime, the persistence probability admits an exact Pfaffian decomposition into even and odd Fredholm determinants of the integrable \emph{sech} kernel. These determinants are controlled by a unique global solution of a second-order nonlinear ordinary differential equation, which is identified as a particular Painlevé VI equation. The corresponding Painlevé VI connection problem determines the persistence exponent as a limiting value at infinity. We further show that the Painlevé VI system governing persistence admits a direct geometric interpretation: the relevant solution coincides with the mean curvature of a one-parameter family of Bonnet surfaces immersed in $\mathbb R^3$. A folding transformation between such surfaces singles out the Painlevé VI equation with Manin coefficients $[0,0,0,0]$, which in particular governs the universal persistence distribution in the symmetric Ising case. In this framework, the persistence exponent is identified with the asymptotic mean curvature of the associated surface.