From indicators to biology: the calibration problem in artificial consciousness

Abstract: Recent work on artificial consciousness shifts evaluation from behaviour to internal architecture, deriving indicators from theories of consciousness and updating credences accordingly. This is progress beyond naive Turing-style tests. But the indicator-based programme remains epistemically under-calibrated: consciousness science is theoretically fragmented, indicators lack independent validation, and no ground truth of artificial phenomenality exists. Under these conditions, probabilistic consciousness attribution to current AI systems is premature. A more defensible near-term strategy is to redirect effort toward biologically grounded engineering -- biohybrid, neuromorphic, and connectome-scale systems -- that reduces the gap with the only domain where consciousness is empirically anchored: living systems.