Sentinel-2 for Crop Yield Estimation: A Systematic Review

Abstract: Accurate and timely crop yield estimation is critical for global food security, agricultural policy, and farm management. The Copernicus Sentinel-2 satellite constellation, with high spatial, temporal, and spectral resolution, has transformed agricultural monitoring by enabling field- and sub-field-scale analysis. This review synthesizes recent advances in Sentinel-2-based crop yield estimation. A key trend is the shift from regional models to high-resolution field-level assessments driven by three main approaches: (i) empirical models using vegetation indices combined with machine and deep learning methods such as Random Forest and Convolutional Neural Networks; (ii) integration of process-based crop growth models (e.g., WOFOST, SAFY) via data assimilation of Sentinel-2-derived variables like Leaf Area Index (LAI); and (iii) data fusion techniques combining Sentinel-2 optical data with Sentinel-1 SAR to mitigate cloud-related limitations. The review shows that machine learning, deep learning, and hybrid modeling frameworks can explain substantial within-field yield variability across crops and regions. However, performance remains constrained by limited ground-truth data, cloud-induced gaps, and challenges in model transferability across years and locations. Future directions include tighter integration of multi-modal data and improved in-season observations to support robust, operational decision-making in precision agriculture and sustainable intensification.