Marine Heatwaves in the Arabian Sea: Drivers and Impacts on Atmospheric Circulation and Extreme Precipitation

Abstract: Marine heatwaves (MHWs) threaten marine ecosystems and significantly impact weather patterns. In the Arabian Sea, summer MHWs are of particular concern due to their potential impacts on the Indian summer monsoon, a lifeline for nearly a billion people. However, the drivers of these MHWs and their influence on atmospheric circulation and monsoon rainfall remain poorly understood. Using satellite observations, reanalysis datasets, and numerical model experiments, we investigate the key drivers of MHW events and assess their impacts. When SST warming trends are retained, the eastern and northern Arabian Sea emerge as MHW hotspots, showing rapid increases during 1982-2023, largely due to anthropogenic warming. On detrending the SSTs to remove the influence of anthropogenic warming on individual MHWs, we find that most MHWs are short-lived (lasting <= 20 days) and are initiated by enhanced surface shortwave radiation and reduced latent heat loss associated with the suppressed convection phase of the Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillations (BSISOs). Interannual SST anomalies, including ENSO and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), further modulate the year-to-year MHW variability. Conversely, the warm SSTs during MHWs exert strong atmospheric feedbacks. MHWs in the eastern Arabian Sea drive cyclonic winds, intensify moisture convergence and increase the risk of extreme precipitation along the southwest coast of India. In the northern Arabian Sea, MHW-induced cyclones trigger intense rainfall over northwestern India and Pakistan, contributing to extreme events like the 2022 Pakistan floods. These findings improve our capacity to predict Arabian Sea MHWs and assess their risks, offering significant socio-economic and ecological benefits.