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On the structure of the Poisson trinomial distribution
Published 9 Mar 2026 in math.PR | (2603.09019v1)
Abstract: We study sums of independent random variables that take values $0$, $1/2$, or $1$. We show that the probability mass function of the sum splits into two interleaved parts: one supported on the integers and the other supported on the half-integers. Each part, when normalized, is a Poisson binomial distribution and hence log-concave with one or two modes. We also prove that each of the two conditional means (conditioning on being an integer or a half-integer) lies within $1/2$ of the unconditional mean. As a consequence, any two modes of the two conditional distributions are within $5/2$ of each other.
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