Evaluating the Predictability of Selected Weather Extremes with Aurora, an AI Weather Forecast Model

Abstract: AI weather foundation models now achieve forecast skill comparable to numerical weather prediction at far lower computational cost, yet their predictability for high-impact extremes across dynamical regimes remains uncertain. We evaluate Aurora using an event-based framework spanning tropical cyclones, freezes, heatwaves, atmospheric rivers, and extreme precipitation at lead times from 1 to 21 days. Aurora demonstrates strong short-range (1-7 day) skill across event types, including competitive tropical cyclone track accuracy and high spatial agreement for temperature and moisture extremes. However, a consistent subseasonal failure mode emerges: while large-scale circulation patterns remain moderately skillful at 14-21 day leads, threshold-based extreme intensity collapses as fields regress toward climatology. This divergence indicates that Aurora retains synoptic-scale dynamical structure but loses surface-impact amplitude beyond 7-10 days. The practical predictability horizon for deterministic AI extreme-event forecasting therefore remains constrained by intrinsic atmospheric dynamics.