Inferring brain plasticity rule under long-term stimulation with structured recurrent dynamics

Abstract: Understanding how long-term stimulation reshapes neural circuits requires uncovering the rules of brain plasticity. While short-term synaptic modifications have been extensively characterized, the principles that drive circuit-level reorganization across hours to weeks remain unknown. Here, we formalize these principles as a latent dynamical law that governs how recurrent connectivity evolves under repeated interventions. To capture this law, we introduce the Stimulus-Evoked Evolution Recurrent dynamics (STEER) framework, a dual-timescale model that disentangles fast neural activity from slow plastic changes. STEER represents plasticity as low-dimensional latent coefficients evolving under a learnable recurrence, enabling testable inference of plasticity rules rather than absorbing them into black-box parameters. We validate STEER with four benchmarks: synthetic Lorenz systems with controlled parameter shifts, BCM-based networks with biologically grounded plasticity, a task learning setting with adaptively optimized external stimulation and longitudinal recordings from Parkinsonian rats receiving closed-loop DBS. Our results demonstrate that STEER recovers interpretable update equations, predicts network adaptation under unseen stimulation schedules, and supports the design of improved intervention protocols. By elevating long-term plasticity from a hidden confound to an identifiable dynamical object, STEER provides a data-driven foundation for both mechanistic insight and principled optimization of brain stimulation.