Inclusive Ranking of Indian States via Bayesian Bradley-Terry Model

Abstract: Evaluating the performance of different administrative regions within a country is crucial for its development and policy formulation. The performance evaluators are mostly based on health, education, per capita income, awareness, family planning and so on. Not only evaluating regions, but also ranking them is a crucial step, and various methods have been proposed to date. We aim to provide a ranking system for Indian states that uses a Bayesian approach via the famous Bradley-Terry model for paired comparisons. The ranking method uses indicators from the NFHS-5 dataset with the prior information of per-capita incomes of the states/UTs, thus leading to a holistic ranking, which not only includes human development factors but also take account the economic background of the states. We also carried out various Markov chain Monte Carlo diagnostics required for the reliability of the estimates of merits for these states. These merits thus provide a ranking for the states/UTs and can further be utilised to make informed policy decisions.