Silence Routing: When Not Speaking Improves Collective Judgment

Abstract: The wisdom of crowds has been shown to operate not only for factual judgments but also in matters of taste, where accuracy is defined relative to an individual's preferences. However, it remains unclear how different types of social signals should be selectively used in such domains. Focusing on a music preference dataset in which contributors provide both personal evaluations (Own) and estimates of population-level preferences (Estimated), we propose a routing framework for collective intelligence in taste. The framework specifies when contributors should speak, what they should report, and when silence is preferable. Using simulation-based aggregation, we show that prediction accuracy improves over an all-own baseline across a broad region of the parameter space, conditional on items where routing applies. Importantly, these gains arise only when silence is allowed, enabling second-order signals to function effectively. The results demonstrate that collective intelligence in matters of taste depends on principled signal routing rather than simple averaging.