A Multi-physics Simulation Framework for High-power Microwave Counter-unmanned Aerial System Design and Performance Evaluation

Abstract: The proliferation of small unmanned aerial systems (sUAS) operating under autonomous guidance has created an urgent need for non-kinetic neutralization methods that are immune to conventional radio-frequency jamming. This paper presents a comprehensive multi-physics simulation framework for the design and performance evaluation of a high-power microwave (HPM) counter-UAS system operating at 2.45\,GHz. The framework integrates electromagnetic propagation modelling, antenna pattern analysis, electromagnetic coupling to unshielded drone wiring harnesses, and a sigmoid-based semiconductor damage probability model calibrated to published CMOS latchup thresholds. A 10{,}000-trial Monte Carlo analysis incorporating stochastic variations in transmitter power, antenna pointing error, target wire orientation, polarization mismatch, and component damage thresholds yields system-level kill probabilities with 95\% confidence intervals. For a baseline configuration of 25\,kW continuous-wave power and a 60\,cm parabolic reflector (21.2\,dBi gain), the Monte Carlo simulation predicts a kill probability of $51.4\pm1.0$\% at 20\,m, decreasing to $13.1\pm0.7$\% at 40\,m. Pulsed operation at 500\,kW peak power (1\% duty cycle) extends the 90\% kill range from approximately 18\,m to 88\,m. The framework further provides parametric design maps, safety exclusion zone calculations compliant with ICNIRP 2020 guidelines, thermal management requirements, and waveguide mode analysis. All simulation codes and results are provided for full reproducibility.