Adaptive Exploration for Latent-State Bandits

Abstract: The multi-armed bandit problem is a core framework for sequential decision-making under uncertainty, but classical algorithms often fail in environments with hidden, time-varying states that confound reward estimation and optimal action selection. We address key challenges arising from unobserved confounders, such as biased reward estimates and limited state information, by introducing a family of state-model-free bandit algorithms that leverage lagged contextual features and coordinated probing strategies. These implicitly track latent states and disambiguate state-dependent reward patterns. Our methods and their adaptive variants can learn optimal policies without explicit state modeling, combining computational efficiency with robust adaptation to non-stationary rewards. Empirical results across diverse settings demonstrate superior performance over classical approaches, and we provide practical recommendations for algorithm selection in real-world applications.