Nonlocal Kramers-Moyal formulas and data-driven discovery of stochastic dynamical systems with multiplicative Lévy noise

Abstract: Traditional data-driven methods, effective for deterministic systems or stochastic differential equations (SDEs) with Gaussian noise, fail to handle the discontinuous sample paths and heavy-tailed fluctuations characteristic of Lévy processes, particularly when the noise is state-dependent. To bridge this gap, we establish nonlocal Kramers-Moyal formulas, rigorously generalizing the classical Kramers-Moyal relations to SDEs with multiplicative Lévy noise. These formulas provide a direct link between short-time transition probability densities (or sample path statistics) and the underlying SDE coefficients: the drift vector, diffusion matrix, Lévy jump measure kernel, and Lévy noise intensity functions. Leveraging these theoretical foundations, we develop novel data-driven algorithms capable of simultaneously identifying all governing components from data and establish convergence results and error analysis for the algorithms. We validate the framework through extensive numerical experiments on prototypical systems. This work provides a principled and practical toolbox for discovering interpretable SDE models governing complex systems influenced by discontinuous, heavy-tailed, state-dependent fluctuations, with broad applicability in climate science, neuroscience, epidemiology, finance, and biological physics.