From Agent-Based Markov Dynamics to Hierarchical Closures on Networks: Emergent Complexity and Epidemic Applications

Abstract: We explore a rigorous formulation of agent-based SIR epidemic dynamics as a discrete-state Markov process, capturing the stochastic propagation of infection or an invading agent on networks. Using indicator functions and corresponding marginal probabilities, we derive a hierarchy of evolution equations that resembles the classical BBGKY hierarchy in statistical mechanics. The structure of these equations clarifies the challenges of closure and highlights the principal problem of systemic complexity arising from stochastic but generally not fully chaotic interactions. Monte Carlo simulations are used to validate simplified closures and approximations, offering a unified perspective on the interplay between network topology, stochasticity, and infection dynamics. We also explore the impact of lockdown measures within a networked agent framework, illustrating how SIR dynamics and structural complexity of the network shape epidemic with propagation of the COVID-19 pandemic in Northern Italy taken as an example.