A Markov-switching dynamic matrix factor model for the high-dimensional matrix time series

Abstract: In this study, we propose a novel model called the Markov-switching dynamic matrix factor (Ms-DMF) model, which serves the dual purpose of structural interpretation and prediction for high-dimensional matrix time series. When estimating the parameters of the Ms-DMF model, an EM (expectation maximization) algorithm was used to get a quasi-maximum likelihood estimation, where all the parameters are estimated jointly. A filtering and smoothing algorithm is used to compute the posterior expectations corresponding to the latent regimes and factors. The consistency, convergence rates, and limit distributions of the estimated parameters are established under mild conditions. The effectiveness of this estimation method is also validated by rigorous numerical simulations. Furthermore, we apply the Ms-DMF model to an international trade flow network. Compared to existing matrix factor models, our approach not only identifies the main import and export centers, but also recognizes the trade cycles between these centers. This provides profound insights and analytical capabilities to advance research in the field of international trade.