The Circulate and Recapture Dynamic of Fan Mobility in Agency-Affiliated VTuber Networks

Abstract: VTuber agencies -- multichannel networks (MCNs) that bundle Virtual YouTubers (VTubers) on YouTube -- curate portfolios of channels and coordinate programming, cross appearances, and branding in the live-streaming VTuber ecosystem. It remains unclear whether affiliation binds fans to a single channel or instead encourages movement within a portfolio that buffers exit, and how these micro level dynamics relate to meso level audience overlap. This study examines how affiliation shapes short horizon viewer trajectories and the organization of audience overlap networks by contrasting agency affiliated and independent VTubers. Using a large, multiyear, fan centered panel of VTuber live stream engagement on YouTube, we construct monthly audience overlap between creators with a similarity measure that is robust to audience size asymmetries. At the micro level, we track retention, changes in the primary creator watched (oshi), and inactivity; at the meso level, we compare structural properties of affiliation specific subgraphs and visualize viewer state transitions. The analysis identifies a pattern of loose mobility: fans tend to remain active while reallocating attention within the same affiliation type, with limited leakage across affiliation type. Network results indicate convergence in global overlap while local neighborhoods within affiliated subgraphs remain persistently denser. Flow diagrams reveal circulate and recapture dynamics that stabilize participation without relying on single channel lock in. We contribute a reusable measurement framework for VTuber live streaming that links micro level trajectories to meso level organization and informs research on creator labor, influencer marketing, and platform governance on video platforms. We do not claim causal effects; the observed regularities are consistent with proximity engineered by VTuber agencies and coordinated recapture.